This Book Won't Sell

A comment on a recent blog post grabbed my attention. In my blog post on Is Good Writing Really Enough, Eric made a really interesting comment about how agents and editors know that a book won’t sell. It seems that publishing professionals use those words all the time, but Eric questioned how we could really know that. And that got me thinking: I’m not sure I’ve ever done a post on the criteria of why I don’t think a book is marketable. How do I get that information and where does it come from? Similarly, how does the publisher get that information?

Before I get started I want to repost Eric’s comment and thank him for making it. I thought it was thought-provoking enough to be deserving of a full post. . . .

I'm close to burning up my quota of posts for the week, so I promise I'll clam up after this.

But here's a thought to consider:

In any other industry, the sales people have a clear picture of what they can and can't sell. Their job is, more than anything, to know the customers.

In the book industry, fads are rampant. Every Harry Potter has a thousand, "Just like Harry Potter!" books following it.

If the people who are in charge of knowing what readers want really had their job nailed, they wouldn't chase every single fad. They would work on product differentiation, which is what a real sales strategy looks like, not copycatting.

So when someone tells me that "This book won't sell," I have to wonder how the Hell they think they know that. There's considerable evidence that the book industry does not have its most basic market research down at all.

If someone wants to prove me wrong, they should address the "It's just like Harry Potter!" routine that you will not see in any other industry.

Last thought - I know it rankles book industry people to the point that I am routinely ignored when I compare it to other industries. Yet when it comes to entertainment dollar, that's what the consumer is considering. Why do people read? I've elicited a lot of very useful comments off of my blog recently. The same arguments that tell us that the book industry is about what sells, not literature, can be used to say that this is just another industry that has to understand its customers, trim its distribution system, and control costs.

The truth is that publishing, agenting in particular, is not like most other sales jobs. In the real estate market, for example, you can compare like houses that have recently sold to determine a price point and the selling potential of your house. How many bedrooms? What is the square footage? How many bathrooms? Is it recently updated? What’s the neighborhood or school system like, etc.? But with books it’s much more about personal taste. Few people judge the value of a book by how many words it has or how many characters. And no one can put a value on style of writing or voice since personal tastes all get in the way. I mean, yes, we do value great prose and wonderful writing, but I can’t tell you that you will earn an additional $20,000 because your voice is an A Voice or a B Voice, etc.

But, like real estate agents, we do comparables to a certain degree. For example, if I recently tried to sell an alien cowboy erotic romance only to be told by 30 different editors that they are all glutted with alien cowboy erotic romances and none have been selling well, then it’s very likely I am going to tell an author with an alien cowboy erotic romance that I don’t think I can sell her book and she should probably come up with something new. Or let’s take chick lit, for example. Why am I telling all authors to avoid writing or at least calling your book chick lit? Because every single editor I talk to tells me not to send them chick lit. Who told editors that? You, the reader, when you stopped buying all of the chick lit books they were publishing.

And as for the lack of creativity agents and editors have when looking for books, or the inability to differentiate book choices, when the Da Vinci Code was hot everyone was buying the next Da Vinci Code, and of course the same held true of Bridget Jones’s Diary and Harry Potter. Why is that? Because when readers find a book they like and are excited about they usually want to read more books in a similar vein. For example, right now I’m reading a really incredible historical romance by one of my own clients. I will guarantee that when I finish I will head out to the bookstore to find another historical romance. I’m in that head and I’m excited about what I’m reading. Does that mean we aren’t looking for something new? Not at all. In fact, it often means we are looking harder for something new. Usually because we get almost immediately sick of all the next books we see heading our way. When something becomes hot I rarely spend time looking for the next of that hot book. Instead I will talk to my clients or co-agents about what we can come up with that will dovetail off that trend in a new and exciting way. When vampires first hit the scene, for example, I started talking to my clients about werewolves (and yes, this was before we were bombarded with werewolves).

As for whether or not we see the “just like Harry Potter” mentality in other industries, do you watch TV or movies? What do you think The Golden Compass was, or the dozens of television shows that were “just like Lost”? Or let’s look at the beverage industry . . . does anyone remember New Coke? It was “just like Pepsi.”

The difficult task of an agent is not just to know what is selling now, but to try to guess what will be selling one year from now, and that is contingent on so many things—what else is hot in entertainment (books, movies, and TV), world events, what people are burned out on, etc. I can’t just look at what people want now, because books I sell now aren’t published now. I need to help predict what people are going to be craving one year from now. As for why people read, I’m very aware of why people read, as are most industry professionals. We’re aware for the simple fact that we’re all readers. The problem with that question is that not all readers read for the same reasons. Business book readers usually read to learn about business, but learn what? I read business books to gain new insights and ideas, while others might read them to get an edge on the competition. What about fiction? Some read for escape, others for great prose. Some read for plot, while others read for characters. Publishing is a business, but books are a number of things to readers. They are entertainment, they are art, and they are an escape. The trouble with trying to pinpoint what works and what doesn’t in publishing is that what works and what doesn’t changes not only market-wide, but also individually. Books I used to love and read ten years ago were very different from what I find myself reading today, and I suspect that holds true for everyone.

I don’t mind the comparison of publishing to other industries, but it’s difficult. People buy cars because they need transportation. People buy fast cars for speed, trucks for durability, etc. People buy houses because they need a place to live. What they need in a house might differ, but the basic components are the same. That can not be said of books. Yes, they all have words, characters, and a plot, but how that is built and the needs it satisfies are entirely different to each reader.

This is a very interesting discussion and I’d love to hear more of Eric’s thoughts as well as those of other readers. Why do you read? What are you looking for in a book? What are you sick of or what would you like to see more of? What would you never want to see again? And do you have any suggestions? If someone can give me a more concrete way to evaluate books (and therefore make easy sales) I would love to hear it.

Jessica

Pitching Projects of Not-Yet-Clients

I’ve been asked and I’ve seen many message board posts on whether or not agents pitch projects before even offering representation, and the answer is yes, sort of. As an agent I can only do my very best if I know exactly what the market wants and needs, and sometimes that means calling an editor or two to feel them out first. Does that mean I know for sure whether a project can sell or will sell? No, it only means that I know the potential for the project at one or two houses.

This is not something I do with every project, but only something I do if I have concerns about marketability. For example, if I have a cozy mystery submission that I like but question whether or not the hook has been done (meaning someone has already published this brilliant “cooking with grass” cozy mystery series), I am very likely to call one of my editor contacts to see whether or not they’ve already tried this or have this concept on their list. Why would I do this? Since there are so few publishers selling cozies right now it gives the author and me both a better chance if we know what we’re up against right away. It also gives me the edge as an agent over an unagented author. Part of why an agent can be so important is that she has the ability to feel things out before you waste your time to write the book. While this is difficult for unpublished or unagented authors, it’s definitely a plus for agented authors. More times than I can count I’ve called editors to feel them out about the market in general or a particular project before I even get the author to start writing. This way we can decide better whether or not we want to spend time on it.

Keep in mind that calling an editor to feel her out about a project does not mean I’m "pitching" the project. The editor is usually very aware that this is a conversation about a potential project and never do I give out the exact title or author name. And never, ever, ever would I actually send anything to an editor without having talked to the author first. So if an editor says no, does this automatically mean I say no as well? No. In some cases I have talked to the author and explained that the hook isn’t viable, but asked if there are other ideas or ways to spin the proposal to make it more marketable. In fact I have more than one client who became a client this very way.

More important, though, does this hurt your chances of selling the book? Not at all. It only gives me an idea of how I feel about repping it. Another agent might have other contacts that are more enthusiastic about the idea or she might be braver than I. In other words, it might not matter to her that Cozy House already has that book because she’s happy to send it to Almost Cozy House and Mysteries R Us House instead. Or she might know something about Cozy House that I don’t. Maybe they want two series on “Eating Grass.”

Being an agent means having a number of resources at my fingertips and yes, some of those resources are editors.

Jessica

The Future of Women's Fiction

Where do you see the women's fiction market heading in the next three to five years?

Ah! A prediction. A complete and utter guess, but from an industry professional. Well, I’ll do my very best, and of course if I’m right, watch me sell some really hot books in the next three to five years.

Women’s fiction isn’t a market that’s as easy to predict as, say, romance or mystery since it’s not a market that relies so heavily on hooks. For example, romances are going to continue to get steamier simply because of the success of erotica. Does it mean all romance is going to be erotic? No, it just means that a lot of romance will be sexier than it was three or four years ago. With women’s fiction, however, there isn’t a whole lot of change. The newest trend was chick lit, mom lit, and all of those other types of lit. I actually suspect those will drop off and we’ll see a return to more traditional themes—the recent divorcee, the wife of a cheating spouse, basically the woman trying to make it after tragedy, whether it’s death, divorce, or just an empty nest. And we’ll see a return to more traditional voices. I think people tired quickly of the snappy, acerbic “lits” and want the quieter, more dramatic read.

From what editors are asking me for, everyone wants the next Jodi Picoult or Debbie Macomber, and if they’re buying those now you can bet that will be the way women’s fiction is headed.

—Jessica

A "Dead" Market

The single-title contemporary romance market seems to be kaput for now . . . yet authors like Susan Elizabeth Phillips, Catherine Anderson, Susan Wiggs, Susan Mallery still manage to hang on to their share of the market. What common denominators account for their continued success (other than being named "Susan")? In your opinion, do they write "high concept" contemporary romance?

In your opinion, can an author build a strong career today—like the ladies above—in straight contemp romance/romantic comedy?

Wouldn’t it be great if all you had to do was change your name to Susan? The truth is that all of these women began their careers in another time, a time when straight contemporary was an easy sell. Since then they’ve built a strong readership that buys every book they write.

A market doesn’t go stagnant or dead or kaput or whatever word we’re using these days because no one, ever, anywhere isn’t reading it; it becomes that way because it gets flooded. When a market is hot, like paranormal romance is now, editors buy everything they can get their hands on and it isn’t long before there are too many books and too many authors for the readers. It’s simple supply and demand. The readers get tired of being inundated, the cream rises to the top, a few stars remain, and it suddenly becomes a market that’s called dead. It’s called dead because the numbers slow. Why do the numbers slow? There are too many books. Is it really dead? No way, it’s just more challenging. Editors are no longer needing to fill lists with contemporary romance, they already have what they need. So to break into it now you’re going to have to work a little harder than you would have had you hit it when things were hot. You’re going to have to write a better book and you’re going to have to make it different and exciting. You’re going to have to give it some kind of hook.

You also need to realize when looking at so-called dead markets that you can’t compare what editors are buying to what’s on the bestseller lists. Once authors consistently hit bestseller lists they are no longer connected with a genre or sub-genre. They are a genre onto themselves. Stephen King is a perfect example. He doesn’t write horror. He writes Stephen King.

So remember this, dear writers. Dead is never dead. The readers, they will come. Dead just means challenging.

—Jessica

BookExpo America

Yesterday I made my trip into the City to attend BEA. And what a madhouse it was. For those of you who have never attended, imagine book insantiy. The event is being held this weekend at New York City's Javits Center. A giant, sprawling convention center. It's where car shows, boat shows and all sorts of other shows are held. It's huge and it was very, very hot.

The best thing about BEA is of course the free books. The worst? The free books and the mad rush to get to them. I wish I could give you a better visual of what BEA is really like, but I'm not that strong of a writer (which is one of the many reasons I leave it to the pros). Think booth after booth of publisher advertising and marketing. Stacks of books for giveaways, tables where meetings are being held, booksignings with everyone from Tom Perotta, L.L. Cool J., Janet Evanovich, Julianne Moore, Khaled Hosseini, and around all of this throngs of people diving for books, stopping to chat with colleagues and generally running into everyone around them.

I spent my time at BEA in meetings with our foreign sub-agents, foreign publishers and just mingling and catching up with editors. It's amazing how among the masses you manage to run into someone you know at almost turn. I was able to chat with some of my favorite editors, former bosses, current and past colleagues, and agents I haven't seen in years. Most importantly though I was able to network and see what publishers are touting for their summer and fall lists.

Giveaways leaned toward NY Times bestsellers, a lot of mysteries, and literary or women's fiction. I didn't see much in the SF or Fantasy genres, no one ever gives away cookbooks (unless you wait in line for the few signings) and children's books are nearly impossible to find. I suspect some of this has to do with production costs as well as which books make the most money for a company. BEA is primarily a convention for librarians, booksellers and publishers. While agents certainly attend to see what's hot for foreign rights, it's more of a fun trip for me and a bigger job for our foreign rights reps. In fact, during a quick stop to chat with one of our co-agents I was thrilled to see she had one of our books sitting on her table. She mentioned that she was getting a lot of interest. Excellent news!

BookEnds was also very well represented this year with giveaways, posters, marketing materials, etc. It's fun to turn a corner and see your books staring you in the face. Even more fun when you hear the publishers talking them up.

BEA is a three day convention event (although there are other activities throughout the week). I only attended Friday this year since I was able to get all of my appointments into one day. But the madness and the excitment will continue through Sunday. I look forward to watching the books publishers were touting to see how they do and to spending my summer reading my brand new stack of books.