Friday, November 09, 2007

How Much Money Will I Make

I’ve done multiple posts now on questions you can, should, and might ask an agent before signing, but a reader came forward to ask me a question I hadn’t considered. Is it appropriate to ask an agent how much she thinks she’ll be able to sell the book for?

Of course I think the answer to this question depends greatly on the author’s personality and whether or not she is comfortable asking such a question. And authors have asked this question of me before signing. Strangely enough, I think they’ve all been nonfiction authors. While I do think it’s entirely appropriate to ask the question, it does put the agent a bit on the hot seat, and of course none of us likes that. For you, though, it’s a great testing ground. It’s the kind of question that’s really going to throw most agents, and the kind of answer that will give you a real look into how this agent probably operates.

While it’s unlikely you’ll get a straight answer, because it’s unlikely the agent has a straight answer, how the agent does answer can say a lot about how comfortable you might be working with such a person. In other words, I wouldn’t base your decision in choosing an agent on how much money she thinks she can get for you, but instead how straightforward she is when answering. How honest is she with you, or how honest do you feel she is? The truth is that agents don’t really know the answer. She can give a ballpark based on her experiences of how much she thinks a publisher might offer, but until she talks to editors who have read the book and knows the passion they feel for it, she won’t know how much they are willing to fight for it—which is when the real money comes in.

Okay. I’ll stop talking in circles now. What I’m trying to say is that I would be wary of the agent who gives a fantastical figure and sounds like she’s promising to get you that kind of money. I would also be wary of the agent who gets mad at you for even asking. I would, however, seriously consider the agent who takes the time to explain how the money process works and what sort of range you might expect based on the subject of your book, its “hotness” factor, your experience, etc. An agent who is as open and honest about your question as she can be.

I’m curious, though. Have any of you asked agents this question, and what kind of responses did you receive?

Jessica

43 comments:

Anonymous said...

Fantastic post. I've just started submitting and this is one of the questions I'd want to ask if I was offered representation, but I feel that if I did ask, the agent might think I was just a money-grabber.

Also, wouldn't it undermine the agent-client relationship somewhat? It sort of implies that I'm using the agent and her connections purely to achieve a big book deal. At the bottom line, I guess that's a large part of the attraction of having an agent, but isn't it a bit degrading for the agent to be judged purely on how big a deal he feels capable of securing? Or is that just harsh reality?

Aimless Writer said...

I'm not there (yet!) but I think this is the question everyone wants to ask. Few have the guts to do it. Wouldn't want the agent to think I'm only doing this for the money. Money will give me the freedom to keep doing it, but isn't why I write. Instead of asking this could we ask where the book will be shopped and what these houses usually shell out for this kind of work?
Thanks for handling such a sticky question.

Mark Terry said...

It doesn't strike me as unreasonable to ask, as long as you're aware, as you say, that how it's answered is probably more important than the answer. I think a response like, "I've made deals that range from $1000 to $500,000, so anything is possible. I hope we get XXX, which is certainly possible but not guaranteed. Let's see how we do," would be a good answer.


I think agents need to be both optimistic and realistic (as do writers) and I supposes that's where the real tension comes in.

How do you as an agent balance those two?

Christie Craig said...

Great post, Jessica.

I've never come out and asked the question...but there is always a first. Kim, are you listening? (smile)

Seriously, I think your point about an agent being upfront and honest, optimistic but realistic is great one. Your circles make perfect sense to me.

Christie Craig

Dena said...

You are right. Any agent that doesn't answer the question, or gives some outrageous and probably irrationally untrue answer should send up alarm bells. Of course what we as writers want to hear is a different story!

Tammie said...

Hmmm not sure I agree with the undermining of the agent-cient relationship.

Isn't trying to obtain an agent and querying a particular one done on the basis of their connections which the results would be to achieve a book deal?

Why else query them?

But like the others here its a question I think most want to ask but never do.

I'd hope to that it would be a balance of reality and optimistic possiblities.

Great post!

JaxPop said...

Now you've done it. You'll be getting the queries with the wrong name, for genres that you don't represent, AND the "how much will I make" question.

therapistwriter said...

I did ask my first agent when we were in intitial talks. I think I put it something like, "what would be realistic for me to hope for." Not very grammatical, but it got the point across that I understood there was no guarentee and was curious about a realistic range. After all, it's a business arrangement where both parties want to (among other things that are easier to talk about) make money.

At any rate, she answered "oh, around $10,000 or so." Looking back, I can see that her answer was a little too... hopeful, shall we say... for a first time author in a genre category. But at the time, I liked to hear it.

Josephine Damian said...

Isn't trying to obtain an agent and querying a particular one done on the basis of their connections which the results would be to achieve a book deal?

Why else query them?


Tammie, I'm with you. As they say in Hollywood, it's Show Business, not Show Friends.

Jessica, I heard an agent say you should ask the agent Do you SEE my book as a bestseller?.

It's kinda like the money question, but also gives you an idea of the agent's asessment of the commercial viability of your book. You can also tell a lot about the agent's enthusiam for the project as well.

That's the first question I'll ask of any agent who wants to represent me.

Anonymous said...

I asked the question. In an e-mail as a follow up to a phone conversation, along with a few of other AAR recommended questions. This agent who offered to rep me was not the one I'd originally queried, but instead got passed to, thus, I didn't know anything about her. Her response to my e-mail was that she felt like our phone conversation was adequate to show how she'd work on my behalf. She then asked me to sign and return the contract, all without addressing one question or inviting me to have another phone conversation. I had to decline her offer. And this was from a very respected agency. I don't hold it against her by any means because she was very green at the time (and so was I!!) and she is making sales now, but I couldn't start my career with someone who couldn't speak openly to me, even if it was just to say "Hey, I'm new here, but I'm backed by this great agency, I love your work, and let's do this together." I would have signed on the dotted line in a heartbeat!

bran fan said...

The shoe was on the other foot in my case. My agent was wooing me because I'd had multiple offers. She popped out with the words "Best seller" right away. I was skeptical. Very skeptical. No agent can promise that because no agent has control over that! But it felt good to have an agent who believed that strongly in my work, which is what writers want.

Later, my agent used those two words again in order to blackmail me into making revisions that I didn't want to make. She said she'd send the novel to fewer editors if I didn't make the changes.

I no longer will trust any agent who uses those two words. They both start with the letters BS for a reason.

I like Mark Terry's example the best. The agent can say she's made deals for XX in the past, and she's hoping for that for you. Really, that's all any agent can do.

p.s. I made the changes that agent BS asked for. It's been three months and agent BS has yet to sell my novel. Imagine my surprise.

Anonymous said...

Along a similar line, I wonder how many *copies* an author can expect to sell of his or her first (genre) novel. Any thoughts? What would a publisher consider a "good" sales record?

Laura Kramarsky said...

I guess I am the odd (wo)man out on this one. I never wanted to know how much I would make, so it never occurred to me to ask. Whatever I make selling my novels--at least the first few--will most likely not pay my rent and will certainly not pay what I can make doing other kinds of work.

That being the case, why does it matter how much I make? I hope that as time goes on my sales increase and I make more, but I can't look that far ahead yet.

Anonymous said...

Personally, I wouldn't want a super-high advance on my first book. Too much pressure to sell a lot of books. And if the publisher isn't going to be a lot of help with promoting, well, then, all the responsibility for earning our is up to me. A very scary proposition.

I've heard more horror stories of first-time authors who were never published again b/c they got a large advance and failed to earn out.

Eek!

I don't think I'd care to ask this question. More likely, I would be interested in knowing which places the agent was thinking to send my book. What editors/houses would like it? That kind of thing.

Anonymous said...

The bestseller question is an interesting one. The only reason why I'd be wary of asking it is because the agent might think I'm just being naive and arrogant as some newbie writers tend to be.

Jenny said...

Authors are going to be paying money to agents to represent them: Fifteen percent of every buck their work earns. Therefore they have a perfect right to ask about now much money the agent thinks they can earn for them.

There are surveys out there that tell you how much authors are getting for their books and every author should read them.

The best is Brenda Hiatt's Show Me The Money

Here's another at Author's Compensation Survey

If you read these, once you get over the realizing you probably won't ever be able to quit your day job you'll have a much better idea what realistic advance numbers are.

Then if you ask where the agent thinks your book fits, financially, you can better evaluate what the agent tells you.

A really good agent can take a book some agents would sell for nothing and turn it into big money. I have seen this happen, and it is one reason why you should always send a query or two to top agents if you have a book that might be something special.

It's a long shot, but I know one author who got a million bucks for a first novel thanks to a hot agent though another well known agent thought the same book would be barely salable as genre and passed on it.

If you did have a book like that, wouldn't you prefer to go for the agent who could sell it as breakout commercial fiction rather than the one who would sell it as a $5,000 paperback original?

And if you don't ask, how will you know which agent you are speaking with?

But that said, if an agent tells you that a book has bestseller potential, you would want to do your research to find out how many bestsellers that agent has already sold. If they haven't sold any, BEWARE.

Anonymous said...

To Anon 10:44 -- I couldn't disagree more! A high advance does not mean that you as the author have to try even harder to earn out the advance, a high advance means the puslisher pushes and markets the heck out of your book, and likewise sales skyrocket because of it.

I had a humble advance for my first book and, accordingly, aside from garnering a few book reviews, pretty much nothing was done by the publisher to elicit sales. Why would they care if it didn't earn out?

In turn, look at the number of UNKNOWN authors who have books that ENTER the NYT best sellers list their first week out -- that's not word of mouth or an author doing a store signing, that is the publisher doing the heavy lifting of marketing.

If an agent said, "This will be a bestseller," I'd probably run. But to turn down a large advance from a Publisher? No way. The publisher has the power to market that baby.

Melanie Avila said...

Great post! As a first-time writer, of course I'm curious what a professional thinks my book might be worth. That doesn't mean I expect millions; if it's worth $5000, I'd like to know.

Thanks for the insight.

Anonymous said...

I'd ask a real estate agent how much they thought they'd be able to sell my house for. What's the difference?

Anonymous said...

While how agents get paid is comparable to how real estate agents get paid, the sales are not. Too many intagibles with books. You never know when your off the wall plot might reflect some huge story in the news, and your book is in the right place at the right time.
Timing plays a huge role.

Anonymous said...

Jenny, those lists are fine for generalized terms. They are based on a limited amount of data whose authors don't mind sharing. They do not reflect the overall state of the market, and they are often out of date.
Publishing is one of the few areas where advances/payment is known to go down rather than up.

Kim Lionetti said...

I have to agree with Anon 12:37. Having worked at a few of those places, and now experiencing it from this side of the business, I find those average numbers very deceiving. In fact, some of that information is flat-out wrong (or at least out of date.)

Averaging advances and royalties is rather pointless. It gives you no indication of range or of how common the high advances are in comparison to the lower ones.

amy m said...

Hey Christie,
I'm reviewing your book in my newspaper column in two weeks! (Nov. 25) I was thinking, now why does that book cover look familiar, LOL.

JaxPop said...

I know I'm going to look pathetically stupid, but here goes. I met a rep from a small publishing company at a writer/agent/publishing conference about 6 weeks ago (my 1st ever). For whatever reason, I had stuffed the first 20some pages of my ms in my back pocket as an afterthought 'just in case'. (It's YA - not BookEnds material). After a friendly chat, (I swear I wasn't pitching) she asked & I showed her, by then, the crumpled pages (great 1st impression) of the ms. 10 minutes later, she asked if I could send the entire ms ASAP. I explained that I was still editing, that I didn't have an agent & had not queried anyone yet (still haven't). She said (very quickly)that I didn't need an agent but would still like to see the work. A week later I decided not to send the ms (tossed her card away - just had bad vibes about it all). Now I'm almost done editing & plan to struggle through the query process to try to land an agent. I just don't know the business side of it well enough to act on my own - that's the bottom line. Foolish, maybe, but it's still a fact that I don't know what I don't know. Ok, so I'm an idiot. Just (gulp) shoot me.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous 11:59 - I was the one that posted about the high advance being a scary thing for me. Yes, there are times that a high advance (depending on what you are thinking is 'high') will include some marketing ploys from the publisher...but not always. Marketing is being done less and less by publishers and more and more by agents and authors.

This might not be 100% true, but with publishing houses not making much money off of most of their authors, it is definitely a worry if you are a new author who fails to earn out her advance. Whether it be a small one or a large one.

I *still* would rather get a middling to small advance on my first book. I'd rather wow the publisher when my sales go through the roof then have to worry about ever earning out that advance. But that is just my feeling on the matter.

I think there are too many unpublished writers with stars in their eyes who think one contract will net them tons of money. Most published writers continue to hold day jobs and do other work to support themselves.

For me, it is the publisher who is important.

Heather B. Moore said...

Jaxpop--you need to search for that publisher on Preditors & Editors--to see what their record is. At the very least, ask for a client list and contact the authors on it.

Kate Douglas said...

Jaxpop, Heather is right. While there are a number of very reputable small press publishers out there, there are just as many with very scary track records. Do your research, talk to other authors they have published and see if you can find their books in your local bookstores. Many of the smaller publishers lack the distribution that is necessary to sell your book.

Jenny said...

Anonymous 12:37,

The surveys I pointed to are not perfect, but they are what is available given how secretive publishers are about advances. They serve the purpose of giving the new author a dose of reality.

I have met quite a few newbies who think they are going to get enough to retire on when they sell that first book. RWA folk have a pretty good idea about advances, but no other genre has an organization that offers reality checks to the unpublished like RWA does.

Anon 11:59
Re the advance, I could not agree more that the size of the advance is a measurement of the publisher's commitment to pushing the book.

Anon 3:07

Agents do NOT market an author's work to the public. They market them to publishers.

And though authors can do a lot to raise their books' visibility, if the publisher did a small print run and did not get the book into the chains, you can market your heart out but you won't sell a lot of books.

Even worse, if the publisher does s small run of mass market paperbacks and they sell through, the publisher that gave that tiny advance is NOT likely to reprint, no matter how much marketing you did.

If the publisher has given a large advance, they print more books and they present the book to the chain reps as "hot" so they get shelf space. Then, when you, the author, raise interest, there are books there for people to buy.

And if you get a really nice advance, you can also get more media exposure. This is particularly important for non-fiction.

One of the things Publishers Weekly asks for when a publisher submits a new book to them is the size of the advance and the first print run. If they aren't big, forget TV etc.

There is a path to success that a lot of romance authors take--I've watched this happen over the years--where they start small, write a lot of books, and grow a readership and eventually make very good money. But this is not a good strategy for someone writing nonfiction or commercial fiction where low sales numbers in the chains can pretty much doom your next book.

And re the comparison of the literary agent to the RE agent, there is a huge difference, but not the one cited. In real estate, if you get your house listed in the MLS what you're selling will be seen by everyone shopping for a house.

But literary agents vary in who they know in the editing world and what editors think of their judgment. Those agents who can make a few phone calls and arrange an auction that leads to a huge advance can get you far more money than the recently fired lower echelon editor who just hung out their shingle last year and has sold three how-to books for tiny advances.

green_knight said...

Maybe a better question would be along the lines of 'what is your vision for this book' or 'where do you see this book in relation to the marketplace.'

I would much rather hear 'editor x at <medium-sized publisher> has been looking for something like that - they don't pay huge advances but most of their authors have a solid backlist and steady income' than 'oh, I'm sure we can find someone interested.' (I'd like to hear 'I just sold a book of similar quality at an auction, and I know several edtiros who would pay a substantial sum to get their hands on this' but that's probably not going to happen..)

Erik said...

Are you actually saying that people enter into a business relationship with someone and are too proud or childlike to ask about money?

My God, you people are nothing more than "marks". This is utterly unbelievable. No wonder I get so much spam from people offering their "services" as an agent for a fee - this level of naivite in industry must be driving a lot of it.

Lise said...

Jenny said...
Anonymous 12:37,

The surveys I pointed to are not perfect, but they are what is available given how secretive publishers are about advances. They serve the purpose of giving the new author a dose of reality.
-
As Kim pointed out, these are often out of date and are not the reality check you're looking for.

---
I have met quite a few newbies who think they are going to get enough to retire on when they sell that first book. RWA folk have a pretty good idea about advances, but no other genre has an organization that offers reality checks to the unpublished like RWA does.

-
This is not true. MWA and SFWA do a nice job in sharing information among their members. It sounds like you're familiar only with RWA.
---

Anon 11:59
Re the advance, I could not agree more that the size of the advance is a measurement of the publisher's commitment to pushing the book.

-
This is partially true. However, especially if you're in genre, if you fail to earn out you're not going to get another shot, or at least anything close to what you had. Isn't it better to earn out, earn royalties, and grow as a writer, rather than put all your hopes on one big advance that might not pan out?
---


Anon 3:07

Agents do NOT market an author's work to the public. They market them to publishers.
-
A lot of agents are now involved in marketing. In fact, some even have personnel in their agencies devoted to this. And they even rep romance.

--
And though authors can do a lot to raise their books' visibility, if the publisher did a small print run and did not get the book into the chains, you can market your heart out but you won't sell a lot of books.
-
This is true. However, most first books from large houses get ordered, albeit small orders. Again, your book has to do it.
---
Even worse, if the publisher does s small run of mass market paperbacks and they sell through, the publisher that gave that tiny advance is NOT likely to reprint, no matter how much marketing you did.
-
This is sometimes true. So don't spend all your money on marketing. Write the next book and make it even better. However, if your book is generating orders, your book will be reprinted.
---

If the publisher has given a large advance, they print more books and they present the book to the chain reps as "hot" so they get shelf space. Then, when you, the author, raise interest, there are books there for people to buy.
-
This happens sometimes. Doesn't always work. There are a lot of books that are "hot" that disappoint.

----
And if you get a really nice advance, you can also get more media exposure. This is particularly important for non-fiction.
-
Ah, so it's better to be known for the size of your advance than the quality of the book and/or writing.
---

One of the things Publishers Weekly asks for when a publisher submits a new book to them is the size of the advance and the first print run. If they aren't big, forget TV etc.
-
Then how come Publishers Weekly is making a concerted effort to review good books by small presses?
---

There is a path to success that a lot of romance authors take--I've watched this happen over the years--where they start small, write a lot of books, and grow a readership and eventually make very good money. But this is not a good strategy for someone writing nonfiction or commercial fiction where low sales numbers in the chains can pretty much doom your next book.
-
You're right. If you only plan to write one book, or you take many years in between, go for the money.
---

And re the comparison of the literary agent to the RE agent, there is a huge difference, but not the one cited. In real estate, if you get your house listed in the MLS what you're selling will be seen by everyone shopping for a house.

But literary agents vary in who they know in the editing world and what editors think of their judgment. Those agents who can make a few phone calls and arrange an auction that leads to a huge advance can get you far more money than the recently fired lower echelon editor who just hung out their shingle last year and has sold three how-to books for tiny advances.
-
Sometimes. Consider Christopher Little, for example.

JaxPop said...

Thank you Kate & Heather for your input. In my effort to keep it brief, I failed to mention that I did check P&E & there was no listing.

a published writer said...

You better believe I'm choosing the agent because of her connections to achieve a book deal. I have friends. I want an agent. Not merely to achieve a "big" book deal but because of the whole package: the connections to the right agents at the right publishers, subsidiary rights depts., the agent's track record in handling books like mine, in handling books at the level I want to reach, all of it.

And one thing an agent DOESN'T do is "promotion." Yeah, I've seen a lot of agencies say they do promotion, or open up "promotional departments" for their clients -- including mine. I haven't seen this actually come into fruition anywhere, though, because guess what? Agent's connections are with publishers and writers. Publisher's connections are with media and booksellers. I've yet to see some agency-run publicity dept. do anything significant with a book.

No, I don't ask what an agent thinks she can sell my book for, and I didn't choose from the agents who offered for me based on the number they hypothesized. You never know what a book sells for. My first book sold for over ten times the first offer, which means one person, at least, thought my book was worth 10% of what actually became its market price. And if someone else hadn't offered, that WOULD have been it's market price. So you never can tell. When I moved to a new publisher, it was because my initial publisher's offer was too low, and we ended up selling the book for three times as much. that's why you can't ask the question. Not because it's rude, but because anyone who *guarantees* you six figures is lying.

Brenda Hiatt's survey is nice, but incredibly out of date and incorrect in places. Trust the info on Harlequin category romances, which are boilerplate deals, and not much else. If you do enough reading though, not just with Hiatt, but on Publisher's Marketplace, Publisher's Weekly, and others, you'll start getting a better idea. Small genre mass markets can see anywhere from 5-10k for a baseline, but if you've got a project they want, you can get up to 25k per even in the midlist. Mainstream and hardcover of course, go much higher.

You posters who are terrified of large advances, I'm sorry for you. I see a direct correlation between a large advance and the amount of effort a publisher puts into pushing your book. A large advance usually goes hand in hand with co-op, lead title status, and attention from publicity departments. And there's little an author can do for herself that a publisher can't outstrip with even the most minor effort in co-op. though occasionally a book with a small advance can get attention with the right blurb or review or celebrity push, it's better to get a large advance and guarantee they want to recoup their investment.

Tammie said...

I think I understand what the postings that talk about bypassing the huge deal/advance and building slowly - having the added pressure and all, at least I think I understand what they are trying to say but again I disagree.

But this leads into the 2 worlds, writers who look at this as a business - as I do and those who look at it as something different not sure what the word would be?

I'm not sure why one would go through the work it takes to land an agent or publisher as if its some dream that just falls from the sky? Maybe a blessing but even thoughs require prior work.

I don't mean to be disrespectful, maybe some are new to it, but it does seem as if many forget that it is a business.

It's also the agent/publishers time that I take seriously and would not want to waste it for them.

I don't get it when writers don't think that way but I guess that is what makes the world-go-round.

And regarding the sites that tell of advances even if its omitting names - I'd be concerned when agents say the information is out of date or incorrect. I'd rather rely on real time discussions with an agent or look to those such as RWA and the SF groups that do a pretty good job of informing writers what is possible. I don't see anything wrong with providing it but if its only a few deals in the count or wrong then it isn't doing anyone any good. But that's just my opinion.

Christie Craig said...

Hi Amy M.,

I hope my book gives you a couple of chuckles! I had so much fun writing it. I would love to get a copy of your review. You can reach me through my website, www.christie-craig.com and you can also read some of my blogs http://killerfictionwriters.blogspot.com/

Thanks again. This is all very exciting for me.

Christie Craig

Josephine Damian said...

Jaxpop, go with your gut.

I say you were right to toss their card. Either they're a fake looking to make money off you for editorial services, or they're way too new to the biz to know that lots of writers start books but never finish (not that that applies to you!)

Dennis said...

This post makes me feel even better about the agent representing my projects. Of course the question of money was on my mind, but I never even had a chance to ask. Right up front he told me what I could reasonably expect -- for both the advance and royalties.

At the same time, I had conversaions with several other agents who were considering my work. All but one brought up money, and one even said, "Okay, this is what you can expect as an advance. Do you still want to pursue this?" I thought that was interesting, especially since the amount was far more than I anticipated.

In regard to asking the question, it seems logical (now) that this should factor into the decision, but maybe wait until there is at least a small degree of author/agent rapport first.

Thoughts?

- Dennis
www.donttipthewaiter.blogpost.com

Julie Weathers said...

Having been a successful real estate broker for a while before leaving the business, I can guarantee that and publishing have little in common aside from an honest agent is imperative.

In real estate I measured the outside and every inside room and made a detailed drawing of it. I took numerous pictures. I ran comparables extensively and I could usually come very close to a professional appraisal on my suggested value.

Real estate is solid and measurable. Books have an intangible appeal, which is not quite so finite.

I was always honest about the best way to sell and didn't give them false hopes of making a killing.

I would want the same kind of literary agent as I, and my agents, were in real estate.

Give me the market. Tell me how to make it better and be honest. Tell me what you will do to sell my book and what you expect me to do to help you. If you can give me an idea of how you think it will sell that's even better, but I don't expect or want guarantees.

Someone who guarantees a quick sale for the big bucks would make me nervous. Been there, done that, bought the tee shirt.

I'm glad this topic was posted as it is good information

Megan said...

It didn't occur to me to ask how much money my agent thought I'd make, though I did ask what publishers she thought it would fit well with. That was all that really mattered to me. I'm not into writing for the money anyway, though money won't hurt, of course

Wanda B. Ontheshelves said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

Jessica, this is another great blog entry on an issue all of us writers ponder. Thanks for the insight. It's wonderful.
mbd

Lorelei said...

I was in a different position, because I entered a publisher's contest knowing the prize money and publication advance were both small. The surprise came in winning, when I hired an attorney to sort out the contract. The contract had problems, and I ended up $200 in the hole in getting published. The book will be out next year. I hope. I would never think to ask how much money I could expect on a book sale. It would be like asking a child how tall they were expecting to be.

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